Election Prediction

 On election night the exit polls and the completed count in many states indicate that Biden will win the popular vote by a substantial margin and the electoral college by a lesser edge. Most states will announce that the winner cannot be declared pending the completion of the ongoing count of mail in ballots.

Trump will claim that the “Radical Left” is stealing the election by fraudulent means. He will call upon “patriots” to protect the nation and armed militias will take to the streets, surround election sites and attempt to confiscate ballots. In some cities the police will act to disarm and disperse the mobs; in other cities the police will take no action.
Trump will challenge the vote count in courts and, ultimately, a fiercely divided Supreme Court will deliver the presidency to Biden. The military will restore order in the troubled cities and insure that Trump leaves office at the end of his term.

Burisma and the Debate

 

At the debate this Thursday, Joe Biden must use the opportunity afforded by the enforced silence of Donald Trump to put to rest the Hunter Biden/Burisma Hail Mary being thrown by the Trump campaign.
In a compact and compelling statement Mr. Biden should remind voters that this timeworn concoction has been debunked by multiple law enforcement and congressional investigations, has been identified as anticipated Russian disinformation aimed at disrupting the election and is based upon a fantasy fed to Rudy Giuliani by a known Russian operative currently under investigation by the FBI.
Mr. Biden should also reinforce the fact that his pressure to remove a corrupt Ukrainian prosecutor was in furtherance of US policy to cleanse that country’s judicial system and had international support.

Unmasking Probe Ends With a Whimper

 

It has been reliably reported that the "great unmasking investigation", initiated by Attorney General William Barr, at the instigation of Fox anchor Sean Hannity and President Donald Trump, has come to an inglorious end. The United States Attorney, John Bash, who was charged with finding criminal misconduct in the highest echelons of the Obama administration, including Vice President Biden, National Security Director Susan Rice and FBI Director James Comey, has left the Department of Justice. Mr. Bash reportedly found no prosecutable wrongdoing, in connection with alleged spying on Michael Flynn and other Trump personnel,  and the report of his non-findings is apparently being buried by Mr. Barr.

After years of almost nightly denouncing the "greatest political conspiracy in American history" and promising that, at any moment, Obama officials would be exposed and jailed, the demise of the investigation has gone without comment or acknowledgement by Mr. Hannity. Mr. Trump has bemoaned the betrayal by his staunchest supporter, Attorney General Barr who has, unexpectedly, failed to do his bidding to imprison the president's opponents.

In these topsy turvy times of a Justice Department out of control, small victories must be noted.

Supreme Court Declines to Revive Abortion Restriction

 The Supreme Court, for the moment, thankfully has declined to stay an injunction issued by a lower court preventing the government from requiring women seeking an abortion pill to travel and appear in person to obtain the medication from a hospital or medical office. The court below found that this requirement imposed an undue burden on the constitutional right to an abortion given the risk of needless travel during the coronavirus pandemic.

In his dissent Justice Alito, joined by Justice Thomas, complained that the court had sanctioned restrictions on religious liberty and free expression by refusing to exempt churches from state shutdown orders but protected abortion rights from government safety regulations. In Justice Alito’s distorted view, the court had allowed serious infringement of free speech and religious liberty in the name of safeguarding public health but now fails to intervene when abortion rights are protected at the expense of public health.
Justice Alito’s reasoning  is logically flawed. Congregating for religious, or any other purpose, poses a health threat. So does a federal requirement that a woman travel unnecessarily to obtain medication provided by mail. Allowing government restriction in the religious context and forbidding it to prevent access by mail to a constitutionally protected right to abortion are each consistent with an overriding concern for the protection of public health. The court’s approach, Justice Alito’s complaint notwithstanding, does not elevate abortion rights above free expression or religious liberty; it subjects each right to the same test of insuring public health.

Impending Constitutional Crisis

 

The previously unimaginable has come to pass. Our nation contemplates the real possibility that Donald Trump, in defiance of the electorate and the dictates of the Constitution, will reject a lost vote and attempt to retain power.
While some take comfort in the ultimate patriotism of public officials to block such a putsch don’t count on it. Others believe the courts will insure that the rule of law is adhered to but courts by themselves haven’t the means of enforcement.
I suggest that the survival of our democracy will hinge on the action or inaction of the U.S. military. Will the generals be true to their oaths to defend and preserve our Constitution or will they elect to obey the orders of the “Commander-in-Chief “?
There is speculation that military leaders may resign their posts if Mr. Trump acts the tyrant. Though that coarse may seem commendable, it would be tragically wrong for two reasons.
First, Mr. Trump will find acolytes he can elevate to lead the military to support his usurpation of power. Second, it is likely Trump’s claim of a fraudulent election result will unleash armed militias in the streets of our cities who will overwhelm outmanned or sympathetic local law enforcers. Those armed mobs must be put down by a military response, a response which will be absent if the commanders have resigned.
This Doomsday scenario must not be gain said; it is real and requires an immediate public commitment from military leaders that they will remain on duty to protect the survival of our democracy.

The Supreme Court

 

Lifetime appointments result in a petrified bench whose members may be out of touch with a changed society. Undue longevity may also weaken an otherwise keen intellect. Allowing a single president to shape the court's judicial philosophy for generations into the future is inimical to a robust democracy.

The solution is staggered term limits so that, ultimately, three justices are replaced every fifteen years. A fifteen-year term is adequate to insure consistency, growth and acquisition of experience. The turnover of three justices every five years increases the likelihood that nominations will be spread across multiple presidents from each party.

Dr. Fauci Debunks Sen. Rand Paul

 The false assertions made by Sen. (Dr.)Rand Paul, incorporated in his questioning of Dr. Anthony Fauci, are a discredit to the Senate and unworthy of a doctor.

During the hearing held on September 23 by the Senate Committee on Health, Labor and Pensions to examine and update the federal response to the Covid-19 pandemic, Sen. Paul wrongly commended Sweden for foregoing a lockdown and getting a good result. Dr. Fauci corrected him, pointing out that the virus toll in Sweden was the worst among Scandinavian nations.
Dr. Fauci also debunked Sen. Paul’s assertion that New York’s good recovery resulted from herd immunity conferred by the early explosion of the virus in that state. No such immunity was achieved, Dr. Fauci explained, and New York’s recovery is attributable to its strict lockdown and the near universal wearing of masks and social distancing by its citizens.
By promoting the notion that lockdowns and mask wearing have not worked, when science has established exactly the opposite, Sen. Paul, an eye doctor challenging a world renowned immunologist, has endangered countless Americans who may misguidedly believe him.