How to Read the Polls

The latest polls show that Clinton and Trump are now in a statistical dead heat with a small edge to Trump. The polls also indicate that Sanders would defeat Trump handily, by as much as 15 percent points. I am not a statistician but it would seem the obvious explanation for this anomalous projection is that many Sanders supporters when polled, are either not expressing a preference as between Clinton and Trump or are favoring Trump in order to enhance the status of their own candidate in his head to head match up with Trump. If that is so, the compelling conclusion is that a large number of these Sanders supporters will ultimately vote for Clinton in the general election (if they vote at all) rather than risk a Trump presidency. Thus, Trump's apparent strength in the polls, vis a vis Clinton, is probably illusory. Of course, things may turn out very differently if the Libertarian Party ticket includes William Weld, a candidate likely to have strong appeal to socially progressive and fiscally conservative voters.